Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures

Citation:

Plaut, Guy, Michael Ghil, and Robert Vautard. 1995. “Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures.” Science 268 (5211): 710–713.

Abstract:

Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.

Last updated on 08/09/2016