Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view

Citation:

Ghil, Michael, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, and Andrew W. Robertson. 2018. “Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view.” The Gap between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, edited by Andrew W. Robertson and Frederic Vitart, 1st ed., 119-142. Elsevier.

Abstract:

This chapter considers the sub-seasonal–to–seasonal (S2S) prediction problem as intrinsically more difficult than either short-range weather prediction or interannual–to–multidecadal climate prediction. The difficulty arises from the comparable importance of atmospheric initial states and of parameter values in determining the atmospheric evolution on the S2S time scale. The chapter relies on the theoretical framework of dynamical systems and the practical tools this framework helps provide to low-order modeling and prediction of S2S variability. The emphasis is on mid-latitude variability and the complementarity of the nonlinear-waves vs. multiple-regime points of view in understanding this variability. Empirical model reduction and the forecast skill of the models thus produced in real-time prediction are reviewed.

Publisher's Version

DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00006-1
Last updated on 11/09/2018