Synchronization of world economic activity

August 21, 2017
Synchronization of world economic activity

In a recent paper on the synchronization of world economic activity, we have identified common spectral properties in a comprehensive sample of macroeconomic time series from over 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world.

An novel approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization, and which combines the M-SSA analysis with a complex PCA analysis. In this paper, we identify several major events that have markedly influenced world economic activity in the postwar era, while a common mode of business cycle activity is found and which points to the existence of a world business cycle.

These findings raise therefore questions about assessments of climate change impacts that are based purely on long-term economic growth models. A key conclusion is the importance of endogenous-dynamics effects at the interface between natural climate variability and economic fluctuations.

The work has been published in the Working Paper Series of the Chair Energy & Prosperity in Paris, and is forthcoming in the Chaos Focus Issue on Synchronization in Large Networks and Continuous Media, vol. 27 (12); see Groth and Ghil (2017).

The picture shows a world map of phase and amplitude relations during the Great Recession 2008-2009.

See also: Media