Abstract Increasing impacts of wildfires on Western US air quality highlights the need for forecasts of smoke emissions based on dynamic modeled wildfires. This work utilizes knowledge of weather, fuels, topography, and firefighting, combined with machine learning and other statistical methods, to generate 1- and 2-day forecasts of fire radiative energy (FRE). The models are trained on data covering 2019 and 2021 and evaluated on data for 2020. For the 1-day (2-day) forecasts, the random forest model shows the most skill, explaining 48% (25%) of the variance in observed daily FRE when trained on all available predictors compared to the 2% (<0%) of variance explained by persistence for the extreme fire year of 2020. The random forest model also shows improved skill in forecasting day-to-day increases and decreases in FRE, with 28% (39%) of observed increase (decrease) days predicted, and increase (decrease) days are identified with 62% (60%) accuracy. Error in the random forest increases with FRE, and the random forest tends toward persistence under severe fire weather. Sensitivity analysis shows that near-surface weather and the latest observed FRE contribute the most to the skill of the model. When the random forest model was trained on subsets of the training data produced by agencies (e.g., the Canadian or US Forest Services), comparable if not better performance was achieved (1-day R2 = 0.39–0.48, 2-day R2 = 0.13–0.34). FRE is used to compute emissions, so these results demonstrate potential for improved fire emissions forecasts for air quality models.

Abstract The vertical distribution of wildfire smoke aerosols is important in determining its environmental impacts but existing observations of smoke heights generally do not possess the temporal resolution required to fully resolve the diurnal behavior of wildfire smoke injection. We use Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) dual polarization data to estimate injection heights of Biomass Burning Debris (BBD) generated by fires. We detect BBD as a surrogate for smoke aerosols, which are often collocated with BBD near the fire but are not within the size range detectable by these radars. Injection heights of BBD are derived for 2–10 August 2019, using WSR-88D reflectivity (Z ≥ 10 dBZ) and dual polarization correlation coefficients (0.2 < C.C < 0.9) to study the Williams Flats fire. Results show the expected diurnal cycles with maximum injection heights present during the late afternoon period when the fire's intensity and convective mixing are maximized. WSR-88D and airborne lidar injection height comparisons reveal that this method is sensitive to outliers and generally overpredicts maximum heights by 40%, though mean and median heights are better captured (<20% mean error). WSR-88D heights between the 75th and 90th percentile seem to accurately represent the maximum heights, with the exception of heights estimated during the occurrence of a pyro-cumulonimbus. Location specific mapping of WSR-88D and lidar injection heights reveal that they diverge further away from the fire as expected due to BBD settling. Most importantly, WSR-88D-derived injection height estimates provide near continuous smoke height information, allowing for the study of diurnal variability of smoke injections.

Abstract Satellite-based Fire radiative power (FRP) retrievals are used to track wildfire activity but are sometimes not possible or have large uncertainties. Here, we show that weather radar products including composite and base reflectivity and equivalent rainfall integrated in the vicinity of the fires show strong correlation with hourly FRP for multiple fires during 2019–2020. Correlation decreases when radar beams are blocked by topography and when there is significant ground clutter (GC) and anomalous propagation (AP). GC/AP can be effectively removed using a machine learning classifier trained with radar retrieved correlation coefficient, velocity, and spectrum width. We find a power-law best describes the relationship between radar products and FRP for multiple fires combined (0.67–0.76 R2). Radar-based FRP estimates can be used to fill gaps in satellite FRP created by cloud cover and show great potential to overcome satellite FRP biases occurring during extreme fire events.

Abstract Predicting the evolution of burned area, smoke emissions, and energy release from wildfires is crucial to air quality forecasting and emergency response planning yet has long posed a significant scientific challenge. Here we compare predictions of burned area and fire radiative power from the coupled weather/fire-spread model WRF-Fire (Weather and Research Forecasting Tool with fire code), against simpler methods typically used in air quality forecasts. We choose the 2019 Williams Flats Fire as our test case due to a wealth of observations and ignite the fire on different days and under different configurations. Using a novel re-gridding scheme, we compare WRF-Fire's heat output to geostationary satellite data at 1-hr temporal resolution. We also evaluate WRF-Fire's time-resolved burned area against high-resolution imaging from the National Infrared Operations aircraft data. Results indicate that for this study, accounting for containment efforts in WRF-Fire simulations makes the biggest difference in achieving accurate results for daily burned area predictions. When incorporating novel containment line inputs, fuel density increases, and fuel moisture observations into the model, the error in average daily burned area is 30% lower than persistence forecasting over a 5-day forecast. Prescribed diurnal cycles and those resolved by WRF-Fire simulations show a phase offset of at least an hour ahead of observations, likely indicating the need for dynamic fuel moisture schemes. This work shows that with proper configuration and input data, coupled weather/fire-spread modeling has the potential to improve smoke emission forecasts.

To quantify the relative roles of long-range transport (LRT) versus locally emitted aerosol and ozone precursors during polluted periods in Korea, high-resolution (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model simulations were performed. The model was evaluated using surface and airborne observations collected during the KORea and United States Air Quality campaign. Ozone above 40 ppb had mean bias of −5.9 ppb. PM2.5 was biased high (8.2 µg/m3), with a relative bias of 30\% given the mean observed value of 26.8 µg/m3. The absolute amounts and shifts between phases for all PM2.5 species except nitrate reasonably match observations across all 4 phases. Notable limitations include an underestimation of nighttime planetary boundary layer height. Transport versus domestic emissions influence was studied by model runs with perturbed emissions and by comparing east-west fluxes over the Yellow Sea to Korean emissions and other normalization metrics. Domestic anthropogenic emission contributions to surface air quality were quantified by location across Korea, segregated by synoptic meteorological phase. The largest contributions from Korean emissions were found under high-pressure stagnant conditions and the smallest for conditions with strong westerly winds. For example, at Seoul, domestic contributions of PM2.5 averaged 49\% and 29\% in the aforementioned meteorological phases, respectively. Surface concentrations of NOx and toluene in Seoul were over 85\% due to domestic emissions. CO and black carbon had both local and remote contributions. Nitrate and ammonium contributions varied greatly by phases in Seoul, with 7\%–51\% nitrate and 42\%–70\% of ammonium from remote sources. Variation in direction (west-to-east vs. east-to-west) and magnitude of fluxes support the model sensitivity results. Analysis using fluxes facilitates the quantification of source contributions for secondary species and, in many cases, can be done using a single model run or reanalysis result. The analysis presented shows the importance of using models with high spatial resolution to capture pollutant transport and mixing around Korea. However, there remain uncertainties in secondary aerosol production mechanisms and indications that local production at times could be higher than those modeled in this analysis. Therefore, the results presented here should be viewed as an upper limit on the importance of LRT.

Abstract The NOAA/NASA Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) experiment was a multi-agency, inter-disciplinary research effort to: (a) obtain detailed measurements of trace gas and aerosol emissions from wildfires and prescribed fires using aircraft, satellites and ground-based instruments, (b) make extensive suborbital remote sensing measurements of fire dynamics, (c) assess local, regional, and global modeling of fires, and (d) strengthen connections to observables on the ground such as fuels and fuel consumption and satellite products such as burned area and fire radiative power. From Boise, ID western wildfires were studied with the NASA DC-8 and two NOAA Twin Otter aircraft. The high-altitude NASA ER-2 was deployed from Palmdale, CA to observe some of these fires in conjunction with satellite overpasses and the other aircraft. Further research was conducted on three mobile laboratories and ground sites, and 17 different modeling forecast and analyses products for fire, fuels and air quality and climate implications. From Salina, KS the DC-8 investigated 87 smaller fires in the Southeast with remote and in-situ data collection. Sampling by all platforms was designed to measure emissions of trace gases and aerosols with multiple transects to capture the chemical transformation of these emissions and perform remote sensing observations of fire and smoke plumes under day and night conditions. The emissions were linked to fuels consumed and fire radiative power using orbital and suborbital remote sensing observations collected during overflights of the fires and smoke plumes and ground sampling of fuels.

Satellite remote sensing of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is essential for detection, characterization, and forecasting of wildfire smoke. In this work, we evaluate the AOD (550 nm) retrievals during the extreme wildfire events over the western U.S. in September 2020. Three products are analyzed, including the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) product collections C6.0 and C6.1, and the NOAA-20 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) AOD from the NOAA Enterprise Processing System (EPS) algorithm. Compared with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data, all three products show strong linear correlations with MAIAC C6.1 and VIIRS presenting overall low bias (<0.06). The accuracy of MAIAC C6.1 is found to be substantially improved with respect to MAIAC C6.0 that drastically underestimated AOD over thick smoke, which validates the effectiveness of updates made in MAIAC C6.1 in terms of an improved representation of smoke aerosol optical properties. VIIRS AOD exhibits comparable uncertainty with MAIAC C6.1 with a slight tendency of increased positive bias over the AERONET AOD range of 0.5–3.0. Averaging coincident retrievals from MAIAC C6.1 and VIIRS provides a lower root mean square error and higher correlation than for the individual products, motivating the benefit of blending these datasets. MAIAC C6.1 and VIIRS are further compared to provide insights on their retrieval strategy. When gridded at 0.1° resolution, MAIAC C6.1 and VIIRS provide similar monthly AOD distribution patterns and the latter exhibits a slightly higher domain average. On daily scale, over thick plumes near fire sources, MAIAC C6.1 reports more valid retrievals where VIIRS tends to have retrievals designated as low or medium quality, which tends to be due to internal quality checks. Over transported smoke near scattered clouds, VIIRS provides better retrieval coverage than MAIAC C6.1 owing to its higher spatial resolution, pixel-level processing, and less strict cloud masking. These results can be used as a guide for applications of satellite AOD retrievals during wildfire events and provide insights on future improvement of retrieval algorithms under heavy smoke conditions.

Abstract Wildfire emissions are a key contributor of carbonaceous aerosols and trace gases to the atmosphere. Induced by buoyant lifting, smoke plumes can be injected into the free troposphere and lower stratosphere, which by consequence significantly affects the magnitude and distance of their influences on air quality and radiation budget. However, the vertical allocation of emissions when smoke escapes the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the mechanism modulating it remain unclear. We present an inverse modeling framework to estimate the wildfire emissions, with their temporal and vertical evolution being constrained by assimilating aerosol extinction profiles observed from the airborne Differential Absorption Lidar-High Spectral Resolution Lidar during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Three fire events in the western U.S., which exhibit free-tropospheric injections are examined. The constrained smoke emissions indicate considerably larger fractions of smoke injected above the PBL (f>PBL, 80%–94%) versus the column total, compared to those estimated by the WRF-Chem model using the default plume rise option (12%–52%). The updated emission profiles yield improvements for the simulated vertical structures of the downwind transported smoke, but limited refinement of regional smoke aerosol optical depth distributions due to the spatiotemporal coverage of flight observations. These results highlight the significance of improving vertical allocation of fire emissions on advancing the modeling and forecasting of the environmental impacts of smoke.

Abstract Aerosol mass extinction efficiency (MEE) is a key aerosol property used to connect aerosol optical properties with aerosol mass concentrations. Using measurements of smoke obtained during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign we find that mid-visible smoke MEE can change by a factor of 2–3 between fresh smoke (<2 hr old) and one-day-old smoke. While increases in aerosol size partially explain this trend, changes in the real part of the aerosol refractive index (real(n)) are necessary to provide closure assuming Mie theory. Real(n) estimates derived from multiple days of FIREX-AQ measurements increase with age (from 1.40 – 1.45 to 1.5–1.54 from fresh to one-day-old) and are found to be positively correlated with organic aerosol oxidation state and aerosol size, and negatively correlated with smoke volatility. Future laboratory, field, and modeling studies should focus on better understanding and parameterizing these relationships to fully represent smoke aging.

To improve PM2.5 predictions in Northeast Asia, we estimated a new background error covariance matrix (BEC) for aerosol data assimilation using surface PM2.5 observations. In contrast to the conventional method of BEC estimation that uses perturbations in meteorological data, this method additionally considered the perturbations using two different emission inventories. By taking the emission uncertainty into account, we found that the standard deviations in the BEC were significantly increased. The standard deviations became around three times larger than those in the conventional method at the surface. The impacts of the new BEC were then tested for the prediction of surface PM2.5 over Northeast Asia using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model initialized by three-dimensional variational method (3D-VAR). The surface PM2.5 data measured at 154 sites in South Korea and 1535 sites in China were assimilated every 6 h during the campaign period of the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) (1 May–14 June 2016). The data assimilation with the new BEC showed better agreement with the surface PM2.5 observations than with the BEC from the conventional method. Our method was also more consistent with the observations in 24-h PM2.5 predictions than the conventional method (specifically, with a ∼44% reduction of negative biases). We concluded that increased standard deviations, together with updated horizontal and vertical length scales in the new BEC, improved the data assimilation and short-term predictions of the surface PM2.5. This paper also suggests several research efforts to further improve the BEC for better short-term PM2.5 predictions in Northeast Asia.