The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to the geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of dehydration center, comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest within the Asian monsoon region. Although convective center is located over the southeastern Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwestern Asian monsoon region increases the local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air mass entering the LS that is dehydrated at relatively warm er temperatures. The warmer dehydration temperatures allow anomalously moist air enters the LS and then moves eastward along the northern frank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the southeastern Asian monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the march of the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating towards the northwestern Asia monsoon from June to August, leading to an increasing fraction of the air mass to be dehydrated at warmer temperatures over the nort hwestern Asian monsoon region. Work presented here confirms the dominant role of temper atures and also emphasizes that one should take the geographic variations of dehydration center into consideration when studying water vapor variations in the LS, as it is linked to changes of convection and large-scale circulation.

Using collocated measurements from geostationary and polar-orbital satellites over tropical continents, we provide a large-scale statistical assessment of the relative influence of aerosols and meteorological conditions on the lifetime of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our results show that MCSs' lifetime increases by 3–24 h when ver-tical wind shear (VWS) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are moderate to high and ambient aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases by 1 SD (1$\sigma$). However, this influence is not as strong as that of CAPE, relative humidity, and VWS, which increase MCSs' lifetime by 3–30 h, 3–27 h, and 3–30 h per 1$\sigma$ of these variables and explain up to 36%, 45%, and 34%, respectively, of the variance of the MCSs' lifetime. AOD explains up to 24% of the total variance of MCSs' lifetime during the decay phase. This result is physically con-sistent with that of the variation of the MCSs' ice water content (IWC) with aerosols, which accounts for 35% and 27% of the total variance of the IWC in convective cores and anvil, respectively, dur-ing the decay phase. The effect of aerosols on MCSs' lifetime varies between different continents. AOD appears to explain up to 20–22% of the total variance of MCSs' lifetime over equatorial South America compared with 8% over equatorial Africa. Aerosols over the Indian Ocean can explain 20% of total variance of MCSs' lifetime over South Asia because such MCSs form and develop over the ocean. These regional differences of aerosol impacts may be linked to different meteorological conditions. mesoscale convective systems | aerosols | meteorological parameters T he hypothesis that aerosols may delay precipitation and increase cloud lifetime of shallow marine clouds (1) has motivated many researchers to study the aerosol indirect effect on convective clouds; however, the influence of aerosols on enhancing cloud lifetime has remained under debate. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are deep convective clouds that cover several hundred kilometers. Previous studies have shown that aerosols affect deep convection, in particular that aerosols increase the number of smaller size cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) (2), which weaken coagulation and coalescence that form rain droplets, and consequently delay warm rainfall (3, 4). These processes allow more cloud droplets to rise above the freezing level and increase latent heat released due to glaciation (5), resulting in stronger updraft speed, enhanced cloud ice content (6), larger anvil size (5), and higher cloud top height (7). The top of the troposphere warms owing to the aerosol-induced changes in convective anvils (8). Although these aerosol effects have been seen in observations from field cam-paigns (9, 10), they have been undetectable on large spatial and multiyear scales. Rosenfeld et al. (11) have attributed this lack of detectability on the large scale of aerosol invigoration of convec-tion to its variation with meteorological conditions and to the lack of knowledge of the relative humidity (RH) outside the clouds. The variation of aerosol effects on convection with meteoro-logical parameters has been studied previously (11). For example, model simulation has shown that an increase in aerosol concen-trations up to an optimal level can invigorate the MCSs under weak vertical wind shear (VWS) and higher RH but suppress the MCSs under strong VWS in a dry environment (12, 13). They found that, due to a significant enhancement in the convective available po-tential energy (CAPE), corresponding to an increase in RH from 50% to 70%, aerosol impact on ice crystal mass becomes pro-nounced, with a dramatic increase in the size of the anvils and the mass of ice crystals of the deep convection. However, such impacts are negligible when RH increases from 40% to 50%, due to little increase in CAPE (13). Moreover, consumption of CAPE for a given amount of rainfall is converted to an equal amount of kinetic energy that invigorates the convection (5, 14). These studies indicate that VWS, RH, and CAPE are important factors that can influence aerosol impacts on the MCSs. However, no quantitative assessment of the relative influence of aerosols versus these meteorological parameters on convective lifetime using satellite measurements has been established (11). The influence of aerosols on the MCSs is expected to vary in different phases of the convective life cycle. For example, Rosenfeld et al. (5) hypothesized that the impact of aerosol on deep convec-tion is stronger and more prominent during the dissipating phase. Using cloud-resolving simulations, Fan et al. (15) found out that aerosol microphysical effects intensify the deep convection during the mature and decaying phases by forming a larger number of smaller and long-lasting particles, whereas additional latent heat released due to aerosols' thermodynamic effect is responsible for invigorating the deep convections during the growing phase. Hence, the detection of aerosol impacts might not be visible until the mature phase, as no satellite can directly measure the thermo-dynamic properties.

This study uses the droughts of 2011 in Texas and 2012 over the central Great Plains as case studies to explore the potential of satellite-observed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) for monitoring drought dynamics.We find that the spatial patterns of negative SIF anomalies from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) closely resembled drought intensity maps from the U.S. DroughtMonitor for both events. The drought-induced suppression of SIF occurred throughout 2011 but was exacerbated in summer in the Texas drought. This event was characterized by a persistent depletion of root zone soil moisture caused by yearlong below-normal precipitation. In contrast, for the central Great Plains drought, warmer temperatures and relatively normal precipitation boosted SIF in the spring of 2012; however, a sudden drop in precipitation coupled with unusually high temperatures rapidly depleted soil moisture through evapotranspiration, leading to a rapid onset of drought in early summer. Accordingly, SIF reversed from above to below normal. For both regions, the GOME-2 SIF anomalies were significantly correlated with those of root zone soil moisture, indicating that the former can potentially be used as proxy of the latter for monitoring agricultural droughts with different onset mechanisms. Further analyses indicate that the contrasting dynamics of SIF during these two extreme events were caused by changes in both fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation fPAR and fluorescence yield, suggesting that satellite SIF is sensitive to both structural and physiological/biochemical variations of vegetation. We conclude that the emerging satellite SIF has excellent potential for dynamic drought monitoring.

Solar dimming and wind stilling (slowdown) are two outstanding climate changes occurred in China over the last four decades. The wind stilling may have suppressed the dispersion of aerosols and amplified the impact of aerosol emission on solar dimming. However, there is a lack of long-term aerosol monitoring and associated study in China to confirm this hypothesis. Here, long-term meteorological data at weather stations combined with short-term aerosol data were used to assess this hypothesis. It was found that surface solar radiation (SSR) decreased considerably with wind stilling in heavily polluted regions at a daily scale, indicating that wind stilling can considerably amplify the aerosol extinction effect on SSR. A threshold value of 3.5 m/s for wind speed is required to effectively reduce aerosols concentration. From this SSR dependence on wind speed, we further derived proxies to quantify aerosol emission and wind stilling amplification effects on SSR variations at a decadal scale. The results show that aerosol emission accounted for approximately 20% of the typical solar dimming in China, which was amplified by approximately 20% by wind stilling.

We estimate the extent of upper tropospheric aerosol layers (UT ALs) surrounding mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and explore the relationships between UT AL extent and the morphology, location, and developmental stage of collocated MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis is based on satellite data collected over equatorial Africa, South Asia, and the Amazon basin between June 2006 and June 2008. We identify substantial variations in the relationships between convective properties and aerosol transport by region and stage of convective development. The most extensive UT ALs over equatorial Africa are associated with mature MCSs, while the most extensive UT ALs over South Asia and the Amazon are associated with growing MCSs. Convective aerosol transport over the Amazon is weaker than that observed over the other two regions despite similar transport frequencies, likely due to the smaller sizes and shorter mean lifetimes of MCSs over the Amazon. Variations in UT ALs in the vicinity of tropical MCSs are primarily explained by variations in the horizontal sizes of the associated MCSs and are largely unrelated to aerosol loading in the lower troposphere. We also identify potentially important relationships with the number of convective cores, vertical wind shear, and convective fraction during the growing and mature stages of MCS development. Relationships between convective properties and aerosol transport are relatively weak during the decaying stage of convective development. Our results provide an interpretive framework for devising and evaluating numerical model experiments that examine relationships between convective properties and ALs in the upper troposphere.

Resolving the debate surrounding the nature and controls of seasonal variation in the structure and metabolism of Amazonian rainforests is critical to understanding their response to climate change. In situ studies have observed higher photosynthetic and evapotranspiration rates, increased litterfall and leaf flushing during the Sunlight-rich dry season. Satellite data also indicated higher greenness level, a proven surrogate of photosynthetic carbon fixation, and leaf area during the dry season relative to the wet season. Some recent reports suggest that rainforests display no seasonal variations and the previous results were satellite measurement artefacts. Therefore, here we re-examine several years of data from three sensors on two satellites under a range of sun positions and satellite measurement geometries and document robust evidence for a seasonal cycle in structure and greenness of wet equatorial Amazonian rainforests. This seasonal cycle is concordant with independent observations of solar radiation. We attribute alternative conclusions to an incomplete study of the seasonal cycle, i.e. the dry season only, and to prognostications based on a biased radiative transfer model. Consequently, evidence of dry season greening in geometry corrected satellite data was ignored and the absence of evidence for seasonal variation in lidar data due to noisy and saturated signals was misinterpreted as evidence of the absence of changes during the dry season. Our results, grounded in the physics of radiative transfer, buttress previous reports of dry season increases in leaf flushing, litterfall, photosynthesis and evapotranspiration in well-hydrated Amazonian rainforests.

Abstract This is the fourth in a series of four articles on historical and projected climate extremes in the United States. Here, we examine the results of historical and future climate model experiments from the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) based on work presented at the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) Workshop on CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses held in March 2012. Our analyses assess the ability of CMIP5 models to capture observed trends and we also evaluate the projected future changes in extreme events over the contiguous U.S. Consistent with the previous articles, here we focus on model-simulated historical trends and projections for temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, large-scale drivers of precipitation variability and drought, and extratropical storms. Comparing new CMIP5 model results with earlier CMIP3 simulations shows that, in general, CMIP5 simulations give similar patterns and magnitudes of future temperature and precipitation extremes in the U...

This study investigates the impacts of fire emission, convection, various climate conditions and transport pathways on the interannual variation of carbon monoxide (CO) in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), by evaluating the field correlation between these fields using multi-satellite observations and principle component analysis, and the transport pathway auto-identification method developed in our previous study. The rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods are used to identify the dominant modes of CO interannual variation in the tropical UT and to study the coupled relationship between UT CO and its governing factors. Both REOF and SVD results confirm that Indonesia is the most significant land region that affects the interannual variation of CO in the tropical UT, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate condition that affects the relationships between surface CO emission, convection and UT CO. In addition, our results also show that the impact of El Niño on the anomalous CO pattern in the tropical UT varies strongly, primarily due to different anomalous emission and convection patterns associated with different El Niño events. In contrast, the anomalous CO pattern in the tropical UT during La Niña period appears to be less variable among different events. Transport pathway analysis suggests that the average CO transported by the "local convection" pathway ($Δ$COlocal) accounts for the differences of UT CO between different ENSO phases over the tropical continents during biomass burning season. $Δ$COlocal is generally higher over Indonesia–Australia and lower over South America during El Niño years than during La Niña years. The other pathway ("advection within the lower troposphere followed by convective vertical transport") occurs more frequently over the west-central Pacific during El Niño years than during La Niña years, which may account for the UT CO differences over this region between different ENSO phases.

In part III of a three-part study onNorthAmerican climateinphase 5of theCoupledModel IntercomparisonProject (CMIP5)models, the authors examineprojections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects ofNorthAmerican climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regionalmanifestations of these climate variables.The authors also examine changes in the eastern NorthPacific and NorthAtlantic tropical cyclone activity andNorthAmerican intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistentwith those previously published forCMIP3, althoughCMIP5model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research.Althoughmany projected changes inNorth American climate are consistent acrossCMIP5models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snowwater equivalent on a regional basis, summerArctic sea ice extent, themagnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity. *

Previous studies have established that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are the main forcing of the interannual variation of the wet season onsets in the Amazon. However, this variation appears to be complex and not uniquely determined by SSTAs. What causes such a complexity and to what extent the interannual variation of the wet season onsets is predictable remain unclear. This study suggests that such a complex relationship is the result of several competing processes, which are nonlinearly related to the SSTAs. In particular, three dry season conditions are crucial for determining interannual variation of the wet season onset. (i) A poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet (SHSJ) over the South American sector, initiated from a wave train-like structure possibly forced by south central Pacific SST patterns, can prevent cold frontal systems from moving northward into the Amazon. This delays cold air incursion and results in late wet season onset over the southern Amazon. (ii) An anomalous anticyclonic center, which enhances westerly wind at 850 hPa over the southern Amazon and also the South American low-level jets, leads to moisture export from the southern Amazon to La Plata basin and reduces convective systems that provide elevated diabatic heating. (iii) Smaller convective available potential energy (CAPE) limits local thermodynamically driven convection. Based on the stepwise and partial least squares regressions, these three selected preseasonal conditions (Niño 4, SHSJ, and CAPE) can explain 57% of the total variance of the wet season onset. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June-August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September-November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.

Previous studies indicated that surface wind speed over China declined during past decades, and several explanations exist in the literature. This study presents long-term (1960-2009) changes of both surface and upper-air wind speeds over China and addresses observed evidence to interpret these changes. It is found that surface wind over China underwent a three-phase change over the past 50 yr: (i) it step changed to a strong wind level at the end of the 1960s, (ii) it declined until the beginning of the 2000s, and (iii) it seemed to be steady and even recovering during the very recent years. The variability of surface wind speed is greater at higher elevations and less at lower elevations. In particular, surface wind speed over the elevated Tibetan Plateau has changed more significantly. Changes in upper-air wind speed observed from rawinsonde are similar to surface wind changes. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis indicates that wind speed changes correspond to changes in geopotential height gradient at 500 hPa. The latter are further correlated with the changes of latitudinal surface temperature gradient, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the past 50 yr over China. This strongly suggests that the spatial gradient of surface global warming or cooling may significantly change surface wind speed at a regional scale through atmospheric thermal adaption. The recovery of wind speed since the beginning of the 2000s over the Tibetan Plateau might be a precursor of the reversal of wind speed trends over China, as wind over high elevations can respond more rapidly to the warming gradient and atmospheric circulation adjustment.

The new Level 3 aerosol profile data derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) provide a multiyear global aerosol distribution with high vertical resolution. We analyzed seasonal and diurnal variations of the vertical distributions of aerosol properties represented by 5-year CALIPSO data. Results show that dust, smoke, and polluted dust are the most frequently detected aerosol types during all seasons. Dust is the dominant type, especially in the middle to upper troposphere, over most areas during boreal spring and summer, while smoke and polluted dust tend to dominate during biomass burning seasons. The seasonal variations of dust layer top height and dust contribution to all-aerosol extinction are positively correlated with the seasonal variation of the dust occurrence frequency. The seasonal cycle of aerosol properties over west Australia is similar to that over biomass burning regime areas, despite its desert regime. In general, smoke is detected more frequently from the lower to middle troposphere; clean marine and polluted continental aerosols are detected more frequently, while polluted dust is detected less frequently, in the lower troposphere during nighttime than daytime. The all-aerosol extinction is generally larger, and the aerosol layer top is detected at high altitudes more frequently during nighttime than daytime. The diurnal changes of aerosol properties are similar within the same aerosol regime. Dust extinction shows little diurnal variation except when dust is the dominant aerosol type. The results contribute to an initial global 3-D aerosol climatology which will likely be extended and improved in the future.

Underestimated rainfall over Amazonia was a common problem for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) models. We investigate whether it still exists in the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) models and, if so, what causes these biases? Our evaluation of historical simulations shows that some models still underestimate rainfall over Amazonia. During the dry season, both convective and large-scale precipitation is underestimated in most models. GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL notably show more pentads with no rainfall. During the wet season, large-scale precipitation is still underestimated in most models. In the dry and transition seasons, models with more realistic moisture convergence and surface evapotranspiration generally have more realistic rainfall totals. In some models, overestimates of rainfall are associated with the adjacent tropical and eastern Pacific ITCZs. However, in other models, too much surface net radiation and a resultant high Bowen ratio appears to cause underestimates of rainfall. During the transition season, low pre-seasonal latent heat, high sensible flux, and a weaker influence of cold air incursions contribute to the dry bias. About half the models can capture, but overestimate, the influences of teleconnection. Based on a simple metric, HadGEM2-ES outperforms other models especially for surface conditions and atmospheric circulation. GFDL-ESM2M has the strongest dry bias presumably due to its overestimate of moisture divergence, induced by overestimated ITCZs in adjacent oceans, and reinforced by positive feedbacks between reduced cloudiness, high Bowen ratio and suppression of rainfall during the dry season, and too weak incursions of extratropical disturbances during the transition season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]