Our societal response to climate change depends on a better understanding of future climate and how it will affect us. The goal of our research is to improve that understanding so policymakers and the public can make informed choices about climate adaptation and mitigation.
We attack the problem from many angles and at different spatial scales, starting with the global climate models that underpin global and national scientific assessments of climate change. We work to understand why these models behave the way they do, and to evaluate their performance. Among the techniques we use is an innovative approach called emergent constraints, which our group pioneered.
We also work to create future climate projections at the spatial scales where policy decisions are made. We do this in part by innovating techniques to downscale global climate model information.
- Recent California tree mortality portends future increase in drought-driven forest die-off
- Understanding differences in California climate projections produced by dynamical and statistical downscaling.
- Future warming and intensification of precipitation extremes: A 'double whammy' leading to increasing flood risk in California.
- Large ensemble downscaling of atmospheric rivers.
- Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change