Our societal response to climate change depends on a better understanding of future climate and how it will affect us. The goal of our research is to improve that understanding so policymakers and the public can make informed choices about climate adaptation and mitigation.
We attack the problem from many angles and at different spatial scales, starting with the global climate models that underpin global and national scientific assessments of climate change. We work to understand why these models behave the way they do, and to evaluate their performance. Among the techniques we use is an innovative approach called emergent constraints, which our group pioneered.
We also work to create future climate projections at the spatial scales where policy decisions are made. We do this in part by innovating techniques to downscale global climate model information.
For more detail about what we do and what we've discovered so far, visit our About Our Work and Publications pages.
Recent Publications
- Natural Variability Has Concealed Increases in Western US Flood Hazard Since the 1970s
- Reducing uncertainty in simulated increases in heavy rainfall occurrence.
- The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate.
- Evaluation of a Reanalysis-Driven Configuration of WRF4 Over the Western United States From 1980-2020.
- Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California.
For Prospective Students
We're always looking for talented students to join our group. If you're interested in working with us, please check out our information for prospective students to learn about the process.