Our societal response to climate change depends on a better understanding of future climate and how it will affect us. The goal of our research is to improve that understanding so policymakers and the public can make informed choices about climate adaptation and mitigation.
We attack the problem from many angles and at different spatial scales, starting with the global climate models that underpin global and national scientific assessments of climate change. We work to understand why these models behave the way they do, and to evaluate their performance. Among the techniques we use is an innovative approach called emergent constraints, which our group pioneered.
We also work to create future climate projections at the spatial scales where policy decisions are made. We do this in part by innovating techniques to downscale global climate model information.
- Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California.
- Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over western United States.
- The Convective-To-Total Precipitation Ratio and the “Drizzling” Bias in Climate Models
- Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets
- A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation